Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 140,039
2 Rhode Island 138,124
3 South Dakota 137,890
4 Utah 123,362
5 Tennessee 121,050
6 Arizona 117,979
7 Iowa 115,028
8 Nebraska 113,074
9 Oklahoma 112,851
10 Wisconsin 112,782
11 New Jersey 112,347
12 South Carolina 111,675
13 Arkansas 110,910
14 Alabama 107,303
15 Indiana 106,664
16 Kansas 106,251
17 Delaware 106,003
18 Illinois 104,531
19 New York 104,315
20 Mississippi 104,278
21 Idaho 104,249
22 Florida 102,830
23 Nevada 101,566
24 Montana 101,209
25 Minnesota 100,772
26 Georgia 100,730
27 Wyoming 99,689
28 Kentucky 99,427
29 Texas 99,129
30 Massachusetts 99,061
31 Louisiana 97,991
32 Missouri 97,361
33 California 94,443
34 Connecticut 93,895
35 New Mexico 93,579
36 North Carolina 91,902
37 Michigan 91,234
38 Ohio 91,051
39 Alaska 90,928
40 Pennsylvania 88,933
41 Colorado 87,605
42 West Virginia 84,469
43 Virginia 76,645
44 Maryland 73,348
45 New Hampshire 69,000
46 District of Columbia 67,053
47 Washington 52,135
48 Puerto Rico 50,748
49 Maine 44,469
50 Oregon 42,842
51 Vermont 36,180
52 Hawaii 22,801

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 357
2 Minnesota 344
3 Puerto Rico 338
4 Delaware 326
5 Colorado 288
6 New Jersey 274
7 Florida 272
8 Pennsylvania 270
9 Maine 225
10 New Hampshire 223
11 New York 223
12 Illinois 213
13 Massachusetts 212
14 Oregon 204
15 West Virginia 203
16 Maryland 180
17 South Carolina 177
18 Washington 152
19 Indiana 148
20 Nebraska 142
21 Vermont 134
22 District of Columbia 133
23 North Dakota 132
24 Georgia 131
25 South Dakota 126
26 Virginia 126
27 Ohio 119
28 Utah 114
29 Wisconsin 113
30 Iowa 109
31 Arizona 104
32 Missouri 104
33 Montana 104
34 Connecticut 96
35 Kentucky 96
36 Rhode Island 93
37 North Carolina 76
38 Alabama 73
39 Hawaii 72
40 Texas 70
41 Tennessee 68
42 Alaska 67
43 Nevada 60
44 Kansas 54
45 Arkansas 53
46 Wyoming 47
47 Idaho 40
48 Louisiana 38
49 New Mexico 36
50 California 33
51 Oklahoma 25
52 Mississippi 23

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,857
2 New York 2,645
3 Massachusetts 2,546
4 Rhode Island 2,510
5 Mississippi 2,410
6 Arizona 2,372
7 Connecticut 2,257
8 Louisiana 2,223
9 Alabama 2,213
10 South Dakota 2,213
11 Pennsylvania 2,033
12 North Dakota 1,990
13 Indiana 1,971
14 New Mexico 1,920
15 Illinois 1,904
16 Arkansas 1,894
17 Iowa 1,878
18 Michigan 1,842
19 South Carolina 1,831
20 Georgia 1,823
21 Tennessee 1,763
22 Nevada 1,760
23 Texas 1,727
24 Kansas 1,719
25 Oklahoma 1,697
26 Delaware 1,659
27 Ohio 1,635
28 Florida 1,622
29 West Virginia 1,574
30 District of Columbia 1,557
31 California 1,554
32 Missouri 1,495
33 Kentucky 1,467
34 Montana 1,462
35 Maryland 1,432
36 Wisconsin 1,283
37 Minnesota 1,269
38 Virginia 1,252
39 Nebraska 1,218
40 Wyoming 1,218
41 North Carolina 1,196
42 Idaho 1,137
43 Colorado 1,109
44 New Hampshire 944
45 Washington 719
46 Puerto Rico 708
47 Utah 680
48 Oregon 592
49 Maine 574
50 Alaska 434
51 Vermont 391
52 Hawaii 335

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 5
2 Delaware 4
3 Kentucky 4
4 Georgia 3
5 New Jersey 3
6 Arizona 2
7 Florida 2
8 Illinois 2
9 Iowa 2
10 Nevada 2
11 New Hampshire 2
12 New York 2
13 Ohio 2
14 Pennsylvania 2
15 Puerto Rico 2
16 South Carolina 2
17 West Virginia 2
18 Wisconsin 2
19 Alabama 1
20 California 1
21 Colorado 1
22 Indiana 1
23 Maryland 1
24 Massachusetts 1
25 Minnesota 1
26 Montana 1
27 Nebraska 1
28 Oregon 1
29 Texas 1
30 Virginia 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Arkansas 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 District of Columbia 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Idaho 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Louisiana 0
39 Maine 0
40 Mississippi 0
41 Missouri 0
42 New Mexico 0
43 North Carolina 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 356,743 1 99
Crowley Colorado 356,377 2 99
Bent Colorado 270,038 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 247,794 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 140,673 185 94
Richland South Carolina 109,879 997 68
York South Carolina 107,940 1068 66
Orange California 84,905 2154 31
Pierce Washington 52,727 2887 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,553 1823 41
Davidson Tennessee 1,338 2072 34
York South Carolina 1,324 2092 33
Richland South Carolina 1,301 2114 32
Pierce Washington 703 2751 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons